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May 6, 2005
Election Night 05 - The Morning After The Night Before
This morning most people are waking to the first day of Labour's historic third term, a phrase that was heard all too often last night.Labour had their majority cut to what looks to be 66-68 seats, down from 167 in 2001. This majority was achieved on a 36% share of the vote, a similar share attained by Neil Kinnock in 1992 when the Conservatives won their historic fourth term. If you look at the entire electorate, the figures look worse:
Lab 22%
Con 20%
LD 14%
Others 5%
None of the above 39%
If anyone wants a good reason to introduce electoral reform in the shape of proportional representation, last night's result was it.
Blair will survive, but in all likelihood only until next year. At that point he has the opportunity to stand down after a referendum defeat on the European Constitution. 12 months also gives the various challengers - and judging from some of the speeches made last night, Gordon Brown isn't going to have things all his own way - time to get their acts together.
It will be interesting to see whether or not Blair is capable of running an effective government when he needs to listen to the broad spectrum of opinion in the Labour Party. Personally I think he has spent too long operating in an autocratic manner to adapt to his changed circumstances. And Cherie looked less than happy at last night's outcome, so he can expect some degree of domestic pressure as well.
The Conservatives, in spite of winning more seats and making some progress, still have a very long way to go if they wish to return to government. And Michael Howard isn't the leader to do it. All credit to him for (apparently) stopping the rot, but there's still a massive challenge facing the party, that of defining a new identity that puts behind them the legacy of the last Conservative government. In may respects they are still being punished for the failings of the Major administration, and Howard is a tie to that. I'd expect a calm and controlled handover to a new leader sometime in the next two years. And this has just been confirmed by Howard saying that he will not fight the next election.
Charles Kennedy can celebrate not just the birth of Donald, but also the best LibDem performance since Lloyd-George in 1923. I still think their strategy of trying to decapitate the Conservatives was flawed, as illustrated by the fact that Tim Collins was the only senior Tory to lose his seat. The LibDems were at their best when pushing Labour, and this is an area they should focus on.
Some notable moments last night:
Reg Keys' speech after the Sedgefield declaration. A moving and impassioned speech, with a few barbs which Blair had to simply stand there and take. And from Blair's expression they appeared to hit home.
Stephen Twigg realising just how Michael Portillo must have felt in 1997, when Twigg took Portillo's seat. After the look on Portillo's face, now we have its companion, the look on Twigg's face.
George Galloway taking Bethnal Green and Bow from Oona King. A salutary illustration of the price paid by many Blairites for their leader's failings. And a truly lunatic acceptance speech from Galloway.
Bob Marshall-Andrews retaining his Medway seat. Bob is one of those Labour MPs who will be a thorn in Blair's side, though after last night he should perhaps consider changing his name to Lazarus.
The BNP doing too well in too many seats. This could well be a big challenge for the main parties to address the concerns of the public without pandering to these racist extremists.
The sheer unpredictability of the result. Although the exit polls got it pretty much spot-on, there seemed at times to be no rhyme or reason to the swings and results. Blaenau Gwent going from Labour to Independant on a 48% swing, Cardiff Central taken by the LibDems on an 8.7% swing, yet Labour held Dorset South and Dumfries and Galloway, both with majorities significantly up from 2001. All in all a very interesting election night after a pretty dull and negative campaign.
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Posted by Clive on May 6, 2005 12:15 PM in the category Old Stuff