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February 1, 2006
Hidden motives
Less than a week has passed since Defence Minister Dr John Reid announce the deployment of a further 3,300 British troops to Afghanistan, and at a conference in London, it appears to have been agreed that they will be there until at least 2010.
The Guardian - British troops to stay in Afghanistan until at least 2010
But the document agreed in London yesterday, the Afghan Compact, says that the international force will promote security and stability in all regions of Afghanistan "through [to] end-2010". It says that by then, the Afghan government is aiming to have established a force of its own of about 70,000.
One can only hope that the international force makes a better job of promoting security and stability over the next four years than it has done since the original invasion.
The Guardian - Blair's latest expedition is a Lawrence of Arabia fantasy
The talk in London yesterday was of punishing Afghans for growing so successfully what Britons consume so eagerly. When the Taliban were in charge things were different. The regime stopped virtually all poppy cultivation in 2001, a fact verified by UN monitors. Output that year was negligible. The Taliban's Mullah Amir Mohammed Haqqani pleaded at the time for western aid for distressed farmers, whose income from substituted wheat and vegetables was a quarter that from poppies. But he declared that "whether we get assistance or not, poppy growing will never be allowed again in our country." There is no evidence that this ascetic policy was not sincere.
Meanwhile, rumours are being heard of the possibility of an early exit from Iraq for British forces:
BBC - Straw hinting at Iraq withdrawal
Foreign Secretary Jack Straw has said he expects "good news" in the next 12 months about withdrawing British troops from Iraq.
He said a timescale was not yet available, but "active discussions" about withdrawal were being held.
And all this comes at the same time as British forces mourn their 100th death since the invasion of Iraq.
One thing is clear, any early exit from Iraq is likely to create just as unholy mess in that country as the over-eager move from Afghanistan to Iraq did in the former. Whether or not you approve of the invasion of Iraq, it is incumbent upon us as an occupying power to ensure an orderly and safe transition. For those conditions to arise within the next 12 months seems wholly unrealistic.
So why is Jack Straw dropping hints of a British withdrawal from Iraq? Possibly in an effort to promote a feel-good factor amongst rebel MPs at home, at a time when some of Blair's key legislation is in danger of being sunk? Or maybe because they might just, eventually, be needed somewhere else?
Posted by Clive on February 1, 2006 1:03 PM in the category Politics