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May 27, 2005

Fuck You

This week Tony Blair continued to listen and learn. This time he listened to our impassioned pleas for electoral reform, and learned to say Fuck You!

Prior to Labour's 1997 election victory, the party's manifesto contained a commitment to hold a referendum on electoral reform:

An effective House of Commons

We believe the House of Commons is in need of modernisation and we will ask the House to establish a special Select Committee to review its procedures. Prime Minister's Questions will be made more effective. Ministerial accountability will be reviewed so as to remove recent abuses. The process for scrutinising European legislation will be overhauled.

The Nolan recommendations will be fully implemented and extended to all public bodies. We will oblige parties to declare the source of all donations above a minimum figure: Labour does this voluntarily and all parties should do so. Foreign funding will be banned. We will ask the Nolan Committee to consider how the funding of political parties should be regulated and reformed.

We are committed to a referendum on the voting system for the House of Commons. An independent commission on voting systems will be appointed early to recommend a proportional alternative to the first-past-the-post system.

Of course, once the first-past-the-post system had delivered a landslide for New Labour, that particular promise got as far as the publication of the Jenkins Report (which was subsequently left to gather dust on the shelf) and no further. 2001 and FPTP delivered another substantial majority, so electoral reform gathered dust for another 4 years.

Bringing matters up to date, the 2005 election delivered an overall Labour majority on the back of votes from less than half of the electorate. The biggest single recipient of votes was a notional none of the above, and in England Labour actually polled fewer votes than the Conservatives. Tactical voting was the order of the day, and the public made it clear that what they wanted was a more democratic form of representation.

Blair's response has been to effectively say fuck you to every person who believes in proportional representation, by replacing pro-PR MP Peter Hain with staunch anti-PR MP John Prescott as chair of the Common's commitee responsible for electoral reform.

The problem is that there is a chronic need to address poor turnout. But by blocking voting reform, New Labour has to find alternatives that can be portrayed as addressing the issue of disenfrachisement. Thus we ended up with the continuing fiasco that is postal voting. Rather than address the real issue, New Labour prefers to take a sticking plaster approach, leaving the wound to fester to the detriment of the body politic. Postal voting is not the solution to poor turnout, but when you've ruled out reform, the alternatives are few and far between.

What is puzzling is the motivation behind this commitee change. If Blair is not going stand at the next General Election, then why should he be concerned with whether or not voting reform goes ahead. As far as I can tell, there are two possible reasons.

1. This is a pre-handover gesture to Gordon Brown. If Brown is determined to stamp his mark on both the Labour Party and the Country, if Brownism is to replace Blairism, then Gordon will need a substantial majority. The only realistic way of guaranteeing such an outcome is to stick with FPTP.

2. This change is to ensure that a Blairite successor has at least a chance of governing with an overall majority, rather than presiding over a hung Parliament or a minority government.

Either way, Blair's listening and learning isn't what you or I would like it to be. And these actions show his contempt for democracy. This should bother you. If it does, check out Make My Vote Count, sign up and get campaigning. In spite of Charlie Falconer's condescending comments, the groundswell is real and will be listened to. As Lord Lipsey says,

People who support electoral reform do not, by their nature, throw bricks through windows or assault policemen, but we be doing a number of things over the next few weeks to demonstrate there is huge public support for change.

So get out there, get active and make a difference to make your vote count in the future.

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May 24, 2005

Corporate Manslaughter.

I've reached the hallowed age of 40 today, so feel justified in a slightly less than cheerful post. Nothing like a bit of practice in becoming a grumpy old man I guess.

In the Queen's Speech, we were show a whole slew of legislation that Tony Blair hopes to introduce. There were some good items (Consumer Credit), some bad items (ID Cards, Counter Terrorism), some were borrowed from the Conservatives (Immigration and Asylum).

In amongst this vast morass of loosely worded pledges was an absolute gem, a truly marvellous item, something which we've been waiting for far too long to see on the statute books. This pearl is the Corporate Manslaughter Bill, which has been long promised, though until it passes through Parliament I'll continue to expect the worst. This is, after all, a piece of legislation which looks like finally making it to the debating stage after more than 10 years as a Labour promise.

As the rail crashes at Ladbroke Grove and Potters Bar showed, there is a chronic lack of corporate responsibility and accountability in business today. But this is nothing new. Many will remember back in 1987 when the ferry The Herald of Free Enterprise capsized as a result of the bow doors being left open. The investigation concluded that responsibility for the underlying causes went a long way up the corporate hierarchy. The absence of any formal law on corporate manslaughter meant that though lessons were learned, no coporate body was ever prosecuted.

So, get out your pens and writing paper, and write a hand written letter (no faxes or emails, type only if your handwriting is so bad that it can't be read) to your MP asking that they support this bill.

While we're on the subject of death in transportation accidents, Sunday was the 90th anniversary of the worst railway accident ever to occur in the British Isle. The accident took place at 6:50am on the 22nd May 1915, at Quitinshill near Gretna. 5 trains were involved, a troop train, an express passenger service, a local passenger train, an empty coal train and a goods train. Due to sloppy practices on the part of the signalmen, the troop train ploughed into the back of the local passenger train, and the wreckage was then hit by the express train. The resulting fire caused gas cylinders to explode, and many were killed or injured whilst still trapped in the wreckage. 227 people were killed in the accident and 246 injured. The two signalmen received prison sentences of 18 months and 3 years, and although 5 factors were cited, no other persons were considered responsible.

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May 23, 2005

I Want My BBC

Well, I'd actually like the Today programme back please. Tomorrow would be nice. Meanwhile BBC staff who are members of Amicus, NUJ and Bectu are striking, causing great disruption to the morning routine in the Balders household. It just doesn't seem right to start the day without the Today team. Worse still, it gave Mrs Balders an opportunity to indulge in a little GMTV watching! Who is that gormless blonde bint? It would appear that this was less of a problem in Bob Piper'shouse, while Tom's reaction seems similar to mine.

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Joined Up Thinking?

So happy hour is being banned in 32,000 pubs run by members of the British Beer and Pub Association. The ban has been introduced in an attempt to cut down on binge drinking and anti-social behaviour. All in all, this seems a very sensible and laudable step, taken by an independant body with a possible vested interest in doing nothing.

So of course given Tony Blair's emphasis on increasing respect in society and a desire to curb anti-social behaviour, we'd expect to see the government introducing related measures to address excessive and inappropriate consumption of alcohol.

But Blair had already reaffirmed his commitment to 24 hour opening for Pubs and Bars, instead relying on tougher new application and review processes, along with additional police powers, to control the situation. Which is all very well, but these powers are to be made available to address a problem that has arisen, rather than prevent the situation in the first place.

And binge drinking is just one part of the problem. While there are many people who go out and get hammered as quickly as possible, allowing pubs and bars to serve for 24 hours may just delay the inevitable point in time where a person has had too much alcohol and becomes abusive, violent, incapable, etc. The real problem is inappropriate and excessive consumption of alcohol, regardless of whether it is the result of a 4 hour saturday night session, an all-day boozing bout or the intake of vast quantities of off-sales from supermarkets.

If the government is truly concerned about the effects of alcohol on society, then 24 hour opening isn't the solution. Increasing awareness of the consequences and better education would all appear to be more appropriate uses of the government's time and effort. Isn't it strange that smoking in public places is being banned for health reasons, yet very little is being done with regard to alcohol. For once, couldn't we have a bit more balance, or is the brewing lobby just too powerful?

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May 16, 2005

Housekeeping

Finally got around to doing some much needed housekeeping on the blog. The Blog List has been split into two groups, Activists and Informers and Entertainers. A number of deserving blogs have been added, and my apologies to them for the delay.

There're also some more books added to Reading Matters, all deserving of your attentions and all of which I'd urge you to read.

The next challenge is to decide on a new blogging tool to replace Blogger. The concern is how to preserve (if possible) the old archive format for posts and (if necessary) the comments associated with each post.

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May 9, 2005

Speed

Sorry to disappoint, but this post has nothing to do with Category A or B proscribed substances.

That almost perennial debate regarding speed limits on Britain's motorways has reared its head again.

Reuters - AA calls for some 80mph motorway limits: The AA called on the government on Monday to raise the speed limit on some motorways to 80 mph to help ease congestion.

The Automobile Association Motoring Trust did not call for a blanket increase but said the speed limit should be raised on stretches of "controlled" motorways -- those that already vary speed limits to match the conditions.

An excellent suggestion from the AA there. If there are times when 70 mph is too fast then there will also be times when 70 mph is too slow. For example, at 7:00am on a clear, dry Sunday morning with little or no traffic then why should drivers be restricted to 70mph?

Furthermore, this would only apply to those stretches of motorway which already have variable speed limits in place.

Of course you can always expect a balance, measured response from the road safety lobby. And this is a classic example:

Road safety campaigners said the plan would make motorways more dangerous.

"The government is trying to reduce the present level of death and injury on the roads and the way forward is not to increase the speed limit," said Brigitte Chaudhry of charity RoadPeace.

"A lot of people are already exceeding 70 mph on a regular basis and not being fined or punished for that. If it's raised to 80 mph then people will go to 90 mph."

Well, good to see that the road safety lobby has bought into the government's flawed policy, hook, line and sinker. For starters, the AA weren't advocating a blanket increase in the speed limit. Secondly, the increase would only apply to those stretches of motorway which already incorporate speed cameras.

Third, and most important, point to note is that speed, by itself, isn't a killer. The real issue is inappropriate speeding. For example, about 10 years ago I was caught doing 126 mph on the M180 in what was then South Humberside. My punishment was �40 fine and 3 points because, as the officer who caught me pointed out, the road conditions were good, traffic was light and I wasn't driving in a manner likely to endanger other road users, I was simply driving too fast. When doing the school run, I drive past 2 primary schools in 30mph zones. When I near both I reduce my speed to 20mph. Meanwhile I quite often see other drivers hurtling past at speeds above 30mph. And I've seen plenty of cars driven by someone under the influence of alcohol that never break the speed limit. But they don't get caught, because speed cameras have replaced police patrols.

If the Government were really commited to reducing the level of death and injury on the roads, the first thing it should do would be increase the number of police on patrol, rather than placing an excessive reliance on speed cameras. Until such time, I will continue to view the "speed kills" simpletons from the road safety lobby as mere pawns, used by the Government to support a flawed policy that places greater emphasis on raising revenue than it does on actually making the roads safer.

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Where do we go from here?

We all remember George W. Bush's presumptious "Mission Accomplished" visit to the U.S.S. Abraham Lincoln. Now that the 2005 General Election is over and Labour have had their majority slashed, some might think that it was mission accomplished for Backing Blair. But the mission statement was Labour In. Blair Out. And we've still got Blair, and if we're not careful, for longer than we'd like:

The Independant - Blair set 18-month deadline to quit as cabinet ministers round on him: Tony Blair's most senior Cabinet colleagues plan to urge him to stand down within 18 months because he lost seats for Labour at last week's election.

Even normally loyal ministers want him to resign by the time the party holds its conference in September 2006 - two years earlier than Mr Blair wishes.

The Scotsman - Blair and Brown unite against rebel MPs: Most Scottish Labour backbenchers want to see Tony Blair step down as Prime Minister within the next two years, according to a survey.

Researchers for BBC Scotland�s Politics Show asked the 33 Scottish Labour back-benchers and four former MPs, who lost their seats last week, when they wanted Mr Blair to go.

Of those who replied, 12 said they wanted him to give up office in the first half of the new parliamentary term - ie, probably within two years - and a further four said he should stand down within a year. Only one said Mr Blair should stay on for three years, one said four years and five said he should go in his own time.

Well I hate to be a party pooper, but to me, all those suggested timescales are simply too long. If this historic third term isn't to be Labour last, then reconstruction after the damaging effects of Blairism needs to take place as soon as possible. I'd therefore urge all Labour MPs and Party Members to consider what needs to be done to ensure that Blair has either stepped down or been removed by the Party Conference this autumn.

For those of you who look forward to Gordon Brown taking up the reigns of the Labour Party, think on this comment from the Scotsman article quoted above:

However, the Chancellor has already publicly stated that he is not ideologically opposed to more private sector involvement in public services such as health - a view that is against the instincts of Labour�s left.

One minister told The Scotsman: "For everything that has been said about Tony in the past, you could substitute Gordon. The only ones who think differently are those who oppose their own party."

Don't say you haven't been warned...

UPDATE - Doesn't look like Tim's too happy about these timescales either.

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May 6, 2005

Election Night 05 - The Morning After The Night Before

This morning most people are waking to the first day of Labour's historic third term, a phrase that was heard all too often last night.

Labour had their majority cut to what looks to be 66-68 seats, down from 167 in 2001. This majority was achieved on a 36% share of the vote, a similar share attained by Neil Kinnock in 1992 when the Conservatives won their historic fourth term. If you look at the entire electorate, the figures look worse:

Lab 22%
Con 20%
LD 14%
Others 5%
None of the above 39%

If anyone wants a good reason to introduce electoral reform in the shape of proportional representation, last night's result was it.

Blair will survive, but in all likelihood only until next year. At that point he has the opportunity to stand down after a referendum defeat on the European Constitution. 12 months also gives the various challengers - and judging from some of the speeches made last night, Gordon Brown isn't going to have things all his own way - time to get their acts together.

It will be interesting to see whether or not Blair is capable of running an effective government when he needs to listen to the broad spectrum of opinion in the Labour Party. Personally I think he has spent too long operating in an autocratic manner to adapt to his changed circumstances. And Cherie looked less than happy at last night's outcome, so he can expect some degree of domestic pressure as well.

The Conservatives, in spite of winning more seats and making some progress, still have a very long way to go if they wish to return to government. And Michael Howard isn't the leader to do it. All credit to him for (apparently) stopping the rot, but there's still a massive challenge facing the party, that of defining a new identity that puts behind them the legacy of the last Conservative government. In may respects they are still being punished for the failings of the Major administration, and Howard is a tie to that. I'd expect a calm and controlled handover to a new leader sometime in the next two years. And this has just been confirmed by Howard saying that he will not fight the next election.

Charles Kennedy can celebrate not just the birth of Donald, but also the best LibDem performance since Lloyd-George in 1923. I still think their strategy of trying to decapitate the Conservatives was flawed, as illustrated by the fact that Tim Collins was the only senior Tory to lose his seat. The LibDems were at their best when pushing Labour, and this is an area they should focus on.

Some notable moments last night:

Reg Keys' speech after the Sedgefield declaration. A moving and impassioned speech, with a few barbs which Blair had to simply stand there and take. And from Blair's expression they appeared to hit home.

Stephen Twigg realising just how Michael Portillo must have felt in 1997, when Twigg took Portillo's seat. After the look on Portillo's face, now we have its companion, the look on Twigg's face.

George Galloway taking Bethnal Green and Bow from Oona King. A salutary illustration of the price paid by many Blairites for their leader's failings. And a truly lunatic acceptance speech from Galloway.

Bob Marshall-Andrews retaining his Medway seat. Bob is one of those Labour MPs who will be a thorn in Blair's side, though after last night he should perhaps consider changing his name to Lazarus.

The BNP doing too well in too many seats. This could well be a big challenge for the main parties to address the concerns of the public without pandering to these racist extremists.

The sheer unpredictability of the result. Although the exit polls got it pretty much spot-on, there seemed at times to be no rhyme or reason to the swings and results. Blaenau Gwent going from Labour to Independant on a 48% swing, Cardiff Central taken by the LibDems on an 8.7% swing, yet Labour held Dorset South and Dumfries and Galloway, both with majorities significantly up from 2001. All in all a very interesting election night after a pretty dull and negative campaign.

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Election Night 05 #19

Labour now only 2 short of overall majority.

Typical Prescott gloat It was Labour that won it. Yeah, and it's Blair that's cost the Party a number of MPs.

Labour's there now, having reached the 324 winning post.

04:27

Looks like Labour's majority will be 68 - 70, which should give Blair pause for thought. I'm calling it a night, and will summarise my thoughts later this morning.

However, ponder this:

Labour 36% share of the vote
Conservative 33% share of the vote
LibDems 23% share of the vote
Others 8%

Yet Labour will have a majority in excess of 60 seats. A democratic result, maybe. Representative of public opinion, doubtful.

Oona King's lost Bethnal Green and Bow to George Galloway. A truly unpleasant campaign, and an illustration of the consequences of nailing ones colours to Blair's mast.

Good night.

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Election Night 05 #18

Conservatives make another gain in Wales. That's two gains for the Welsh Conservatives now.

Can't believe Labour are going have a majority with just 36% of the vote. That's even less than Harold Wilson in 1974!

Charles Clarke back with a share of the vote down 8%.

LibDems take Solihull, a supposedly safe Consevative seat. Nice one! And a 14% increase in their share of the vote, a 10% swing to the LibDems.

Brent East is finally declaring, and Sarah Teather has held the seat she won in a by-election. Nerve wracking, but a good result for the LibDems after losing Leicester South. Especially given how strong Labour's candidate was.

Michael Howard holds Folkestone, not a real surprise and he's increased his majority. Once again shows how flawed the LibDem decapitation strategy was.

3 to go to Labour's victory.

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Election Night 05 #17

The next big push must be for electoral reform. How any government could claim a majority on such a small share of the vote and still claim a democratic mandate is beyond me. Will be interesting to see the figures on just how many votes it took to elect an MP from each of the 3 main parties this time round.

Of course given that Blair failed to deliver on Labour's 1997 manifesto commitment to a referendum on this issue, and that the current system has delivered another majority for Labour, you can be sure it won't come up in this Parliament if he can help it.

Oliver Letwin holds on to Dorset West, with an increased share of the vote. LibDem's strategy of attacking Tory big names, and a possible neglect of the West Country vote, seems to have backfired.

Losses/Gains to date:

Conservatives gain 16 seats.
LibDems gain 7 seats.
Oth gain 2 seats.
Labour down 25 seats.

Welwyn and Hatfield falls to the Conservatives. There goes number 13 on the vulnerable list, and down goes Health Minister Melanie Johnson.

Bad result for the SNP in Dumfries and Galloway, with their share of the vote dropping 13%. Labour hold the seat,.

Meanwhile the Conservatives take Dumfriesshire from Labour, giving them a presence in Scotland again.

And the result from Erewash? Well, the permatanned nutter looks tres unhappy. Not too surprising as he gave up a cushy number as MEP to fight this seat for Veritas. A classic example of the triumph of hubris over good sense, especially as it looks like he might have even lost his deposit. Once again the BNP have picked up a couple of thousand votes, a disturbing trend.

After 2 recounts, Sittingbourne and Sheppey declares for Labour, vulnerable seat number 53 and a Conservative target. Majority of only 79, but the Conservatives should have taken it.

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Election Night 05 #16

Now for Wyre Forest, probably the most democratically volatile constituency in the country. Was won by an Independant in 2001, and still held by Richard Taylor (Ind). Conservatives increased their share of the vote by 10%, but Taylor held on.

Monmouth falls to the Tories, but no real surprise there.

Labour hold Dumfries and Galloway, their most vulnerable seat!! Totally unpredictable stuff.

LibDems take Leeds North West, as suggested, in spite of it being a LibDem longshot.

Tim's going to be seriously pissed off, Anne Milton's just won Guildford for the Tories, taking it from the LibDems. That's woman's a nightmare, do the people of Guildford know what they have done? I think not.

If I hear historic third term and lessons to learn from a New Labour person one more time tonight, I'm going to lose it, big time.

Conservative take The Wrekin from Labour, overturning an 8.6% majority.

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Election Night 05 #15

Oh god, John Hemming has taken Birmingham Yardley from Labour for the LibDems. This is the man who helped put together the Phoenix consortium, a group that managed to bugger Rover.

Losses/Gains to date:

Conservatives gain 5 seats.
LibDems gain 6 seats.
SNP lose 1 seat.
Labour lose 11 seats.

Should have Enfield Southgate soon. Remember 1997 and that look on Portillo's face when Twigg took the seat for Labour? Looks like he's about to find out how Portillo felt.

Ruth "Butch Nutter" Kelly holds Bolton with a swing to Conservative of 4%.

Manchester Withington falls to the LibDems!! That was supposed to be a solid, safe Labour seat, but fell with a swing of 17%. This is bonkers stuff, absolutely crazy.

Rochdale falls to the LibDems on an 8% swing.

Bethnal Green and Bow still not called. But Labour not sounding too confident.

Haltemprice and Howden held by David Davies, so another Tory scalp that the LibDems failed to take. BNP got over 700 votes! Nightmare stuff.

Enfield Southgate falls to the Conservatives. Twigg looks about as comfortable as Portillo did 8 years ago. No sympathy for Stephen Twigg, given how smug he looked when he beat Portillo. And a 9% swing to the Conservatives. Does look like the Tories are making a breakthrough in London.

SNP take Dundee East from Labour, overturning a majority of 7%.

Blair doesn't look too happy at Reg Key's speach, and indeed he shouldn't. Can't see Blair ever saying sorry, the word doesn't exist in his vocabulary. Nice one Reg, excellent speach and a nice dig at Blair for not knowing how many British soldiers have been killed in Iraq.

Bollicks, Labour have taken Leicester South from the LibDems. Bugger!

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Election Night 05 #14

A nervous looking Blair has arrived at the Sedgefield count. Not so cocky now eh chum?

LibDems take Ceredigion from Plaid Cymru. Not really of any significance in terms of cutting New Labour's majority. Still, a nice one for Charle Kennedy.

Sedgefield has declared for Tony Blair, not looking happy and a 6% drop in share of the vote. Reg Keys took 4,000+ against Blair, but what a line up of candidates, 15 of them! If only they could have all got their act together we might have had a better result. Blair looks less than happy about things, probably got his mind on retirement planning. Our job is to serve people, what a crock. Has it really taken him this long to realise that he is supposed to be accountable to the British public.

Once again there's reference to an historic third term. If they want a truly unprecedented fourth term, then he needs to go, and go quickly.

Conservatives have taken Wimbledon, number 51 on the vulnerable list and a Labour majority of 9.1% in 2001.

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Election Night 05 #13

Bethnal Green and Bow should declare shortly. Galloway seems confident, but we'll see. Good luck to the constituents if he wins.

Hornsey and Wood Green falls to the LibDems, on a swing of 15% to LibDems. Labour's majority in 2001 was 24.1% Good result for the LibDems.

Meanwhile Lab just held Hove, Conservative target 48 and number 37 on the vulnerable list.

Teresa May holds Maidenhead with an increased majority and a share of the vote up 6%. The BNP took nearly 800 votes, so not just a northern thing.

Iraq has definitely been a significant factor in Labour's performance. Wonder what odds are being offered on Blair quitting by the Party Conference.

Keighley declared for Labour, a hold on seat number 53 on the vulnerable list. More disturbing is Nick Griffin (BNP) getting a 9% increase, at the expense of the Conservatives. This is looking like a significant issue during the next parliament.

Blaenau Gwent falls to an Independant Labour candidate. Overturned a 19,000 Labour majority in 2001 and took the seat with a 9000 majority. Massive swing of 49%

Ilford North (vulnverable seat number 24) falls to the Conservatives on a swing of 4.6%.

Labour's majority now predicted to be 76. Bollocks! Though I'd have been happy with a sub-80 majority yesterday. Definitely a long night.

Oh, and here's Alastair "The Cunt" Campbell claiming tonight as a great Labour victory. Let's see him spin the reduced majority. Here it comes, smell that bull. Yup, he's spinning faster than a washing machine. Oh well, if anyone can spin it, he can.

Wonderful acceptance speach from Peter Law in Blaenau Gwent. Strong message being sent to the New Labour machine.

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Election Night 05 #12

Conservatives take Newbury from the LibDems. Damn, wasn't expecting that. The pattern of Lab-->Cons/LibDem and LibDem-->Cons does seem to be holding up at the moment, at least in the marginals.

On the positive side, LibDems held Cheadle, with Labour's vote going to the LibDems to keep the Conservatives out. A case of Vote LibDem, Keep the Tories out.

Recount in Shipley, possibly also in Islington South.

Birmingham Edgbaston held by Labour, share of the vote down 6%, LibDems up 2%. Looks like the LibDems might have been a bit excitable earlier claiming seats before they're called.

And Milburn doesn't want a cabinet post. Good! Guy's a plonker and made a totally ineffectual campaign leader for Labour.

Ynys Mon declares for Labour. This was number 11 on the vulnerable list, and a poor result for Plaid Cymru who expected to take the seat from Labour.

LibDems take Dunbartonshire East from Labour, LibDem's share of the vote up 15%, Labour down 9% and Conservative down 5%. Nice result, and compensation for Newbury?

BBC's first forecast on results so far:

LibDems 59
Conservative 201
Labour 357

Labour majority of 68. Lines up with the exit poll. Would prefer a sub-60 majority, but the night is still young.

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Election Night 05 #11

Torbay declares for LibDem, a LibDem hold but their majority reduced, share down 10%, Labour up 6%. One wonders whether the people of Torbay fell for Labour's propoganda?

Blackburn declaring. Will be interesting to see how Craig Murray has done.

Jack Straw returned for Blackburn, on a share of the vote down 12%, Cons down 8%, LibDems up 12%.

Wirral West claimed by Conservative. Birmingham Yardley claimed by LibDems. Both Labour seats in 2001.

Craig only got 2000 votes. Nuts, was hoping for something better than that.

Ilford North falls to the Conservatives? Number 24 on the vulnerable list, and a Labour majority of 5.3% in 2001.

Conservative comeback in London? Could be, which would be a fairly significant result for both Labour and the Conservatives.

Na h-Eileanan an Iar (Western Isles) fallen to the SNP, a Labour loss? They had a majority of 8.2% in 2001 and number 43 on the vulnerable list.

Peterborough (number 33 on the vulnerable list, Labour majority of 7.2% in 2001) has declared for the Conservatives. Another gain for the Tories, and one they'll be happy with. Labour down 10%, Conservative up 4%.

Doesn't look like Blair is going to get the big majority he was after. Might be lucky if Labour manage a majority in the 50s.

Meanwhile the LibDems don't seem to be impacting the Tories. Basically Labour losing votes to both LibDems and Conservatives, and LibDems losing votes to the Conservatives. Definitely a tough night to try and predict Labour's majority.

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Election Night 05 #10

Blaenau Gwent split? Labour loss? That was an extremely safe Labour seat.

And Gravesham looking iffy too.

Hmmm. God only knows how this is going to pan out.

Looks like Blaenau Gwent has fallen to the Independant candidate, overturning a 19,000 majority.

Bob M-A seems seriously hacked off with Blair. Will be a serious loss to Labour, though New Labour won't be sad to see him go.

Prescott returned, on a share of the vote down 8%. 6% swing to LibDem.

Will be interesting to see how Backing Blair's strategy pans out.

Blunkett back with a swing to LibDems of 6%. Even he is predicting a much reduced majority. His acceptance speach is either New Labour spin and bull, or the opening move in a potential leadership challenge. And he's still trying to sping Iraq as a good thing.

Gordon Brown back, on an increased majority, but with new boundaries it's hard to make a comparison. Another acceptance speach with leadership overtones.

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Election Night 05 #9

Putney declares for Conservatives, a Labour loss. Conservative up 4%, Labour down 9%. Labour's 41st most vulnerable seat has fallen with a majority of 8.1%.

If this keeps up then things are going to get very tight.

Newcastle upon Tyne Central declares for Labour, a Labour hold with Labour down 10%, LibDems up 12%, 11% swing to LibDems.

If Putney is a good indicator for Labour/Tory marginals, then we're halfway to a hung parliament. Still a long way to go tonight.

Medway lost for Labour? If so then that's number 60 on the vulnerable list. Feel sorry for Bob Marshall-Andrews, a pretty decent chap.

North East Fife, Sir Menzies Campbell's constituency, held for the LibDems.

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Election Night 05 #8

Charlie Falconer says he doesn't know what's going on. Nothing new there then.

Everyone is pointing out the bullshit of Vote LibDem, Get a Tory Government.

Another brown nosing performance from Falconer.

Hull West and Hessle declares for Labour, a Labour hold with Labour's share down 3%.

Rotherham swing to LibDem of 9%, Vauxhall 6%. Both Labour holds. BNP up 7% and Labour down 11% in Rotherham.

Labour down 6%, LibDems up 6% in Vauxhall, LibDems taking 2nd place.

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Election Night 05 #7

Blunkett coming out with typical fawning sycophancy towards Blair. There again he's hoping for a cabinet post, and Blair will need all the friends he can get if the majority is severely slashed.

LibDems claiming they'll take Hornsey and Wood Green from Labour, which would mean overturning a 24.1% majority.

The permatanned fascist, Robert Kilroy-Silk, and his Veritas party, along with the BNP and UKIP may well hand Erewash to the Conservatives. Labour's majority was 14.3% and turnout is up.

Barnsley Central declares for Labour, a Labour hold with Labour's share down 9%, up 2% for the LibDems. Labour's vote again being scattered over the other parties.

More worrying is another constituency where the BNP polled over a 1000 votes. Seriously scary concept for a constituency on my doorstep.

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May 5, 2005

Election Night 05 #7

20,000 postal votes missing in Birmingham!!! That's over 30%, and that fat git Charlie Falconer thinks postal voting's a great success. The idiot maintains his reputation for having an extremely tenuous grasp on reality.

Meanwhile, Oliver Letwin's sweating. Woo hoo!

Turnout up to over 70% in Haltemprice and Howden. Labour might lose their deposit while David Davies may be about to take a pounding in the polls and an enforced retirement from Westminster.

Rutherglen and Hamilton West declares for Labour, a Labour hold with Labour's share down 4% and LibDems up 7%. This could have a very interesting effect on Labour in Scotland.

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Election Night 05 #6

Stephen Twigg looking nervous in Enfield Southgate. Labour's majority was 13.2% in 2001, and if this swing in the target seats holds out then Labour are in big trouble.

Labour strategists now saying that the BBC/ITV exit poll may have painted their chances in a favourable light. Could be looking at a sub 50 Labour majority.

Houghton and Washington East declares for Labour, a Labour hold with Labour's share down 9% and LibDems up 6%.

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Election Night 05 #5

Labour to lose Cardiff Central to the LibDems? That'd be a Labour majority of 1.9% overturned.

On a more general note, turnout looks to be up on 2001, which is good for democracy. Just a shame that the stimulus had to be a desire to punish Blair.

Torbay turnout of over 70%!!! That's really going to make the night interesting.

And Sunderland North declares for Labour, a Labour hold with Labour's share down 9%!!! A 5% swing to the Conservatives.

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Election Night 05 #4

Things are sounding a bit dodgy for Oona King in Bethnal Green and Bow, a Conservative longshot with a Labour majority of 26.2%. If Labour does lose this seat, then Labour could be in a bit more trouble than the exit poll would indicate. I just I don't reach a point this evening where I need to start sweating over a possible hung parliament. In which case, apologies to Bob Piper and Tom Watson.

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Election Night 05 #3

There's talk of the Conservatives looking likely to take Dartford, number 35 on the vulnerable list and requiring a swing of 7.4%. But more interesting is the claim that the LibDems think they may be taking Birmingham Perry Bar which was a Conservative longshot with a Labour majority in 2001 of 23.4%. As expected, tonight looks like an extremely interesting end to a particularly uninspiring campaign. In fact Birmingham is looking a bit grim for Labour, with them expressing concern that they might lose Edgebaston, considered a relatively safe seat with a majority of 12.4%.

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Election Night 05 #2

An exit poll on behalf of both the BBC and ITV shows Labour on course to victory, but with a majority reduced from 160 to 66. We'll get an indication of this when the results for Na h-Eileanan an Iar, Putney and Birmingham Yardley are declared between 00:00 and 01:00. A majority of under 70 would be excellent news for those fed up with Blair and New Labour, but who would rather not see another Conservative government.

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Election Night 05 #1

Here are the 80 most vulnerable seats for Labour, along with expected declaration times and the Labour majority in 2001. If Labour loses all 80 then we have a hung parliament, an event which would require a 12% swing from Labour.

1 Dumfries and Galloway 0.3% 03:00
2 Dorset South 0.3% 04:00
3 Braintree 0.7% 03:30
4 Monmouth 0.9% 02:00
5 Lancaster & Wyre 0.9% 04:30
6 Kettering 1.2% 04:30
7 Dundee East 1.3% 01:30
8 Northampton South 1.7% 02:00
9 Ochil and South Perthshire 1.8% 02:30
10 Cardiff Central 1.9% 02:00
11 Ynys Mon 2.4% 01:00
12 Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey 2.7% 02:30
13 Welwyn Hatfield 2.8% 01:30
14 Shipley 3.1% 01:30
15 Clwyd West 3.2% 02:30
16 Bexleyheath & Crayford 3.6% 03:00
17 Milton Keynes North East 3.9% 03:00
18 Hornchurch 4.2% 02:00
19 Selby 4.3% 03:00
20 Hammersmith & Fulham 4.5% 03:00
21 Thanet South 4.5% 00:45
22 Forest of Dean 4.6% 04:30
23 Wellingborough 4.6% 03:00
24 Ilford North 5.3% 01:00
25 Rugby & Kenilworth 5.3% 04:00
26 Gillingham 5.4% 03:00
27 Harwich 5.4% 02:00
28 Enfield North 6.0% 03:00
29 Oldham East & Saddleworth 6.0% 01:00
30 Dunbartonshire East 6.3% 02:00
31 Calder Valley 6.5% 01:00
32 Redditch 6.7% 03:00
33 Peterborough 7.2% 01:00
34 Shrewsbury & Atcham 7.2% 02:30
35 Dartford 7.4% 02:30
36 Scarborough & Whitby 7.5% 03:00
37 Hove 7.6% 02:00
38 Bristol West 8.0% 03:00
39 Preseli Pembrokeshire 8.0% 03:30
40 Gloucester 8.0% 03:00
41 Putney 8.1% 00:30
42 Hemel Hempstead 8.2% 02:30
43 Na h-Eileanan an Iar 8.2% 00:01
44 Ribble South 8.2% 03:00
45 Finchley & Golders Green 8.5% 02:30
46 Wolverhampton South West 8.5% 00:30
47 Birmingham Yardley 8.6% 00:45
48 The Wrekin 8.6% 02:45
49 Croydon Central 8.7% 02:30
50 Elmet 9.1% 02:45
51 Wimbledon 9.1% 02:00
52 Stroud 9.1% 02:30
53 Keighley 9.2% 01:30
54 Sittingbourne & Sheppey 9.3% 01:00
55 High Peak 9.3% 02:30
56 Aberdeen South 9.5% 02:00
57 Stourbridge 9.5% 01:30
58 Brigg & Goole 9.6% 03:30
59 Falmouth & Camborne 9.7% 02:30
60 Medway 9.8% 03:00
61 Colne Valley 9.9% 02:30
62 Wirral West 10.0% 02:00
63 St Albans 10.2% 02:00
64 Vale of Glamorgan 10.4% 01:30
65 Burton 10.4% 02:00
66 Hastings & Rye 10.5% 03:00
67 Pendle 10.8% 01:00
68 Bradford West 10.9% 01:30
69 Chatham & Aylesford 10.9% 03:00
70 Warwick & Leamington 11.1% 03:30
71 Gravesham 11.1% 02:00
72 Great Yarmouth 11.3% 03:30
73 Wansdyke 11.3% 02:00
74 Stafford 11.3% 04:30
75 Tamworth 11.4% 03:00
76 Dover 11.6% 02:30
77 Rossendale & Darwen 11.9% 02:00
78 Watford 12.0% 03:00
79 Broxtowe 12.0% 02:00
80 Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale 12.1% 03:00

The constituencies in bold are the earliest declaration in each percentage band and, while they won't necessarily give a clear indication of the scale of any swing from Labour, will give an impression as to how things are going.

For live blogging, check out the following:

The CY Election Liveblog Guide

Bloggers following the Election Live

If You've a Blacklist

Masochist's Dictionary

Red Pepper

Militant Moderates

The Skakagrall

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And so it begins...

As this article at the BBC points out, the fact that an investigation has already begun into possible postal voting irregularities in Aberdeen South may be much ado about nothing. It does reflect badly on the shambolic mess that this government has made in attempting to rush in postal voting. Of course the real reason for voter disillusionment has nothing to do with the effort required to get to a polling station, and everything to do with the fact that only 200,000 votes really matter under First-Past-The-Post. And also the sheer negativity of campaigning these days, not to mention the lack of clear blue water between the two parties.

Still, postal voting is a way of appearing to address the issue without removing the system that gave Labour such thumping majorities in 1997 and 2001. Makes one wonder how thick the dust is laying on Blair's copy of The Report of the Independant Commission on the Voting System. Still, just another broken manifesto commitment from New Labour, this time dating back to 1997:

This country needs comprehensive and meaningful electoral reform, and it needs it before the next general election. Otherwise if governments persist in merely tinkering with the existing system, then we may very soon be presented with the embarassing scenario of needing independant scrutiny of the whole process, a situation normally encountered in corrupt nations....

UPDATE - And another...

BBC - Second man bailed in vote probe: Police investigating claims of election fraud in Bradford have released a 51-year-old man on police bail.

The man was questioned for more than 12 hours on Wednesday as part of an inquiry into 100 applications for postal votes in the city.

A 38-year-old man arrested on Tuesday has also been released on bail pending further inquiries.

(Link courtesy of Seamus O'Blimey)

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UK Today Election Night Special

Tonight the UK Today will be running a live Election Blog. First post will be between 9:30pm and 10:00pm, once I've got myself nice and settled with a couple of bottles of Shiraz, some sundried tomato ciabatta, Parma ham and gorgonzola. Oh, and tracked down my unused nose-peg for symbolic destruction as an effigy of Blair.

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Vote Blair, Get Blair

Anyone yet to vote, and who is tempted to vote Labour on the grounds that a vote for Blair will get them Gordon Brown as PM should take a look at a interview last night with Tony Blair

The Scotsman - Blair will keep Brown waiting: Asked if was possible he might quit in 2006 or 2007, Mr Blair replied: "There is no question of that. I�m not fighting this campaign just to get in and then go."

And don't think that Brown's a dead cert for PM in three or four years time. Or that he'd be a sucessful Prime Minister. Consider the fate of Anthony Eden, considered Churchill's natural sucessor, yet kept waiting until he was past his sell by date.

It is highly likely that one of Blair's objectives for the next term of office will be to groom a suitable Blairite sucessor. However, such a course is dependant on Labour winning a large enough majority to give Blair the authority to complete his emasculation of the left wingers in the party.

There are a great many similarities between Labour today and the Conservatives at the beginning of the 1990's. If Blair continues to push his agenda, the backlash that will eventually come about may make Labour's 18 years in the wilderness look like the blink of an eye.

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Conspiracy Theory

Here's one for the conspiracy theorists out there. How convenient for Tony Blair that there should be a potential bomb explosion on election day.

BBC - Blast strikes UK consulate in US: New York police are investigating what caused at least one blast at the UK consulate in Manhattan, which shattered windows but caused no injuries.

What it does go to show is that even with heightened security measures in place, things like this will still happen. Imposing draconian laws that restrict civil liberties will not prevent terrorist attacks. As has been said many times before, the terrorists only need to get lucky once. What does protect a nation against terrorism is for the country to behave in a responsible manner in its international dealings. And illegally invading a sovereign nation does not constitute a responsible act.

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Exercising my right to vote

A nice bright May morning, if a little windy, perfect voting conditions. Off down to my polling station, noting on the way the marked absence of Labour posters (in 2001 you couldn't walk 10 yards without seeing one).

No dilemma for me as to which box to put the X in. In spite of be a Labour Party member, and living in a staunch Labour area to boot, out came my tactical vote. I did have a slight wobble when the time came to vote for a Party I've never voted for in 5 previous general elections, but needs must when Blair's in power.

Doubt that a protest vote will have any significant impact around here, though one of the polling station staff did comment that the usual early morning rush was missing this year. Mind you, I would consider any significant reduction in the Labour majority of 35% to be a victory around here. If nothing else it might encourage the Labour MP to remember his Party's roots and work towards bringing the Labour Party back from the right.

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May 4, 2005

Polling Day

Thursday is polling day and I urge you not only to vote, but to vote tactically. It is vital that Tony Blair is not given another substantial majority, and only through tactical voting can the electorate send Blair the message that his evasions, spin and lies will not be tolerated.

You may very well have seen the Labour adverts, warning that if you vote LibDem, you'll get a Conservative government. This is a lie. For an excellent refutation of this latest New Labour lie, check out this post over at Nick Barlow's blog

So you don't need to worry about voting against New Labour in protest.

But if it is a lie, then why is Blair pushing the message so hard?

The answer is quite simple. Blair isn't worried about winning, as a Labour victory is a foregone conclusion. What bothers Blair is the thought of trying to maintain his authority over a party with a much reduced majority. The first consequence of a halving of the current majority would be a massive diminuation of his authority. It would leave him wide open to the criticism that he has become a liability to the party.

Secondly, a majority of only 70 or 80 would force Blair and New Labour to give greater consideration to the wishes of the more traditional left of the party. This would effectively signal the beginning of the end of the New Labour project. If you look at the scale of some of the rebellions in the last Parliament, the government would have been defeated had its majority been below 80.

Now if you listen to this propoganda, if you let yourself be swayed by it and vote Labour tomorrow in spite of your reservations, then you need to understand the consequences.

Blair will use a large majority as an endorsement of him personally.

Blair will use a large majority as an endorsement of the invasion of Iraq.

Blair will use a large majority to crack down on those Labour MPs opposed to the Thatcherite excesses of New Labour.

Blair will use a large majority as an endorsement of New Labour's right wing policies including anti-terror legislation, ID cards, an undemocratic upper house, and the continuation of Private Finance Initiatives (e.g. foundation hospitals, new academy schools, etc).

If you don't want to take my word for it then check out this article in The Independant:

Labour: Revealed - Labour's strategy to block influence of left-wing MPs

Labour is warning supporters that Michael Howard could become prime minister in an attempt to neuter the influence of left-wing MPs by winning a big majority in the general election.

Senior Labour officials admitted they would have a "party-management problem" if Mr Blair's majority were cut from its present 159 to 50.

David Blunkett, the former home secretary who is expected to return to the Cabinet in a reshuffle on Friday if Labour retains power, told The Independent: "The real danger of abstentions could lead to a parliament where the disaffected determine the policy of the country.

So I'm going to ask you to do one more thing in addition to voting. I want you to encourage everyone you know who is disillusioned with Blair and New Labour to vote tactically in protest. If you're out this evening then spread the word, on the way to the polling station tomorrow, at work encourage colleagues who have yet to vote. Please, please, please don't let another lie cause you to squander your vote.

May 2, 2005

Not good at numbers

We should probably cut Tony Blair a bit of slack over the fact that he didn't have a clue how many illegal immigrants are in this country. After all, it's a relatively large number and one reliant on a difficult definition.

But knowing how many British soldiers have died in Iraq is a different matter. For starters the details are available on the MoD website. And in comparison to the number of illegal immigrants and asylum seekers, the number of British servicemen killed in Iraq is small; 87 to be exact.

Yet the best Blair could manage, when asked the question of how many British soldiers have been killed in Iraq so far, was a vague 70 or 80. That's how much the human price of invading Iraq matters to Blair.

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